The Jan/Feb edition of The Atlantic has a good summary by Barton Gellman of how democracy in the United States is in mortal danger. Since the article is rather long, I summarize it here. [If you think my summary is long, read the original article!]
Trump is Succeeding in Plans to Return to Power
Richard L. Hasen, a law professor at UC Irvine said, “‘We face a serious risk that American democracy as we know it will come to an end in 2024, but urgent action is not happening.” Voters’ choice for president may be invalidated by state legislatures rather than through violence. Elected officials in AZ, TX, GA, PA, WI, MI and elsewhere have been “building an apparatus of election theft” based on Trump’s failed attempt in 2020. They are removing or weakening election officials who stood in the way of the election steal last year, and some have changed state law in order to overrule election decisions.
Trump will probably run for president in 2024. He has convinced a big chunk of Americans that his lies about being cheated out of election in 2020 are true. Almost all public opposition within the Republican party to these lies has crumbled. Many thought that January 6 would destroy Trump’s political standing, but he has only gotten stronger within the party since then.
A Large Block of Americans Embrace Ideas that Have Led to Genocide Elsewhere
Men like former New York firefighter Richard C. Patterson, interviewed extensively in article, are firmly committed to the idea that white US-born Americans are being oppressed by racial minorities and immigrants, and believe fully in a variety of ridiculous conspiracy theories about the election. He even tries to cast doubt on whether an attack happened on January 6; when pressed, he tries to blame the violence on Democratic agents. Patterson has deeply held beliefs that he personally was rejected from several jobs because he was not African American or female.
Robert A. Pape, head of University of Chicago’s Project on Security and Threats (CPOST), sees similarities between Trump and Slobodan Milosevic, who led the former Yugoslavia into attempted genocide based on the idea that Muslims threatened to replace Serbs as the dominant people in the region. Pape pointed to Trump’s January 6 speech, in which Trump said “Our country has been under siege for a long time, far longer than this four-year period. You’re the real people. You’re the people that built this nation…. And we fight. We fight like hell. And if you don’t fight like hell, you’re not going to have a country anymore.”
CPOST studied the demographics of the people who attacked the Capitol on January 6. 60% had no affiliation with extremist groups like the Proud Boys, they came disproportionately from counties which did not vote for Trump, were not from regions where white household income was dropping, and largely middle aged and middle class men. But there was a strong correlation with demographics: counties with faster recent drops in non-Hispanic white population had higher chances of residents joining the 1/6 attack.
Polling also shows that in June, 8% of the adults believed that violence was justified to remove Biden from power; two thirds of those people agreed that minorities “will eventually have more rights than whites.” This is a pool of millions of sympathizers who might support a smaller group’s actual attacks. Pape compares it to the IRA, which lasted for years with about 13% of Northern Ireland Catholics who supported using force for Irish nationalism.
Trump’s Route to an Election Steal Goes Through State Legislatures
There has long been debate over whether Trump is a clown, a threat, or both. In trying to overthrow the 2024 election, he would not have the advantage of being the president, but otherwise his position would be stronger. The main thrust of his attempted coup in 2020 was to have enough Republicans in some states with close elections declare him the winner despite having fewer votes. Even the January 6 attack itself was designed to pressure Congress to throw the decision back to the states, where Trump was still trying to pressure hold-outs.
On January 6, Mike Pence was whisked out of danger literally less than 2 minutes before the attackers arrived. What would have happened if the mob had reached him in time?
68% of Republicans believe that Biden stole the 2020 election (November PRRI poll). “Nothing close to this loss of faith in democracy has happened here before. Even Confederates recognized Abraham Lincoln’s election; they tried to secede because they knew they had lost. Delegitimating Biden’s victory was a strategic win for Trump.”
Paul Gosar, whose staff tweeted a cartoon of Gosar killing Democratic leaders, was recently addressing a large group of college Republicans. He helped organize the January 6 rally, and is leading efforts to whitewash it and brand jailed attackers as martyrs.
The Constitution (Article II) says that state legislatures decide how electors to the Electoral College are appointed. Since the 1800s this has meant the choice of the majority of voters. But the conservative majority of the Supreme Court might go along with the idea that states can choose electors however they want – even if undemocratic.
“Elections are complicated, and election administrators have to make hundreds of choices about election machinery and procedures—the time, place, and manner of voting or counting or canvassing—that the legislature has not specifically authorized. A judge or county administrator may hold polls open for an extra hour to make up for a power outage that temporarily halts voting. Precinct workers may exercise their discretion to help voters “cure” technical errors on their ballots. A judge may rule that the state constitution limits or overrides a provision of state election law.
“Four justices—Alito, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Clarence Thomas—have already signaled support for a doctrine that disallows any such deviation from the election rules passed by a state legislature. It is an absolutist reading of legislative control over the “manner” of appointing electors under Article II of the U.S. Constitution. Justice Amy Coney Barrett, Trump’s last appointee, has never opined on the issue.”
A small number of Republican officials and officeholders resisted pressure from Trump and his minions, but they are now being threatened and primaried. Once they are gone, who will stop a similar attempt in 2024?
Among people who stood up for democracy: Brad Raffensperger (GA): censured by state party, stripped of power by legislature. Aaron Van Langevelde (MI): “hounded off the Board of State Canvassers”. Governor Doug Ducey (AZ): faces a Trump-supported challenger. Governor Brian Kemp (GA): facing Trump challenger.
Arizona legislature passed a law reducing the [Democratic] Secretary of State’s role in elections, and is debating a bill to allow themselves to declare an election winner. Georgia passed a law that would allow a state board, controlled by the legislature, to overrule vote tallies. PA, WI, and MI are swing states where Democratic governors who stopped similar attempts are up for re-election this year.
“Trump is not relying on the clown-car legal team that lost nearly every court case last time. The independent-state-legislature doctrine has a Federalist Society imprimatur and attorneys from top-tier firms like BakerHostetler. A dark-money voter-suppression group that calls itself the Honest Elections Project has already featured the argument in an amicus brief.”
Response of Biden Administration Has Been Inadequate
Biden has publicly identified the threat, but is relying on weak measures and wishful thinking. Congress needs to eliminate the filibuster and pass laws that protect the integrity of elections. Justice Department and FBI have been arresting “foot soldiers” of January 6, but needs to go after their leaders.
In elections this year, gerrymandered states are likely to increase GOP strength in their legislatures. Supreme Court may give legislatures permission to change election results. If Republicans get a majority in Congress, they will be in charge of counting electoral votes.
“Against Biden or another Democratic nominee, Donald Trump may be capable of winning a fair election in 2024. He does not intend to take that chance.”