Trump Popularity After Capitol Attack
[update, 12/18/2021]
Almost a year later, US democracy remains in a state of emergency, with the (correct) belief that Biden is the rightful winner of the 2020 election at 27% of Republicans, 94% of Democrats, and 63% overall, about what it was in June and in February. Meanwhile, in recent polls for the next presidential election, Trump is about evenly matched with both Harris and Biden, despite his efforts to steal the election and his role in the mob attack on Congress.
Probably the revelation that prominent conservatives were texting Trump Chief of Staff Mark Meadows on January 6 to tell Trump to stop the attack will not change the minds of the anti-democracy wing of the Republican Party:
Fox commentator Mark Hannity: “Can he make a statement?…Ask people to leave the Capitol.”
Fox commentator Laura Ingraham: “Hey Mark, the president needs to tell people in the Capitol to go home…this is hurting all of us…he is destroying his legacy.”
Donald Trump, Jr: “He’s got to condemn this s*** Asap. The Capitol Police tweet is not enough.” Meadows responded: “I’m pushing it hard. Agreed.”
These texts bring additional evidence to the picture we already have of Trump’s dereliction of duty on January 6. Not only do we know that he failed for hours to take strong action against his own supporters fighting with cops on the steps of the Capitol and instead lobbied members of Congress to overturn the election, we can see that Team Trump was telling him in real time that he had to take action. Unfortunately, the very people who said things like “he is destroying his legacy” continue to rehabilitate that legacy. Fox News’ Tucker Carlson (not included in the tweets as far as I know), even went so far as to portray investigation of 1/6 and prosecution of the rioters as the “real” attack on democracy.
[original post, 1/16/2021]
How do Americans feel about Donald Trump after the attack on the Capitol (“Capack”?) by his followers in which one police officer was killed and dozens more injured?
Some Data
The Washington Post published a poll they conducted with ABC News Mon-Wed after the attack. Because I found their graphics a little difficult to assimilate, I have re-graphed their results.
The poll continues the low popularity ratings Trump has received throughout his term in office. Over half the sampled population felt that he should be removed from office and not allowed to run again. Similarly, almost half the population said that he had a “great deal” of responsibility for the Capitol attack, and less than 30% said that he had no responsibility for it. The responses to both of these questions were extremely partisan, with near unanimity among Democrats for, and Republicans against, removal. Still, over 40% of Republicans admitted that the president bore at least “some” responsibility for the attack.
Despite the poll coming days after an unprecedented assault on the seat of government by people acting in his name, Trump’s poll numbers were no worse than those of the previous Republican president, George W. Bush. In fact Trump had a higher percentage of people rating his term as “above average” or better than were willing to say the same about Bush in January of 2009. Of course, Bush’s administration was marked by a traumatic terrorist attack on 9/11, two wars that did not go well for the US, and an economic crisis that was still worsening as Bush left office.
Perhaps for this reason, both Democrats had better poll numbers – about 50% “above average” or better and 20% “below average” or worse, than both recent Republicans, who got less than 30% “above average” or better and about 60% “below average” or worse. George H.W. Bush did better than the later Republicans. He was a less polarizing president, with about half the population rating him “average” and a total of around 10% rating him either “poor” or “outstanding”.
Before and After
How did the Capitol attack change Trump’s popularity?
The opinion polls show a fairly consistent division between over 50% of the public disapproving and less than 50% approving. Large majorities in each group expressed “strong” approval/disapproval rather than being “somewhat” approving/disapproving. Month to month variations were a few percentage points up or down. During 2020, when the US was racked by coronavirus and Trump was accused of downplaying the disease and mismanaging the response, he actually gained some approval. The 55-45 split in November was broadly consistent with the actual popular vote in the 2020 election, which went 51% to 47% to Biden.
Trump’s popularity dropped after the Capitol account, but only by a small amount. For instance, strong disapproval only went up by less than 10%, from 45% to 52%. This is not even 2x the standard deviation of the time series.
A Great Divergence
Observers over a wide spectrum of political views have strongly denounced Trump for his role in the attack, with calls for removal from office coming not only from the New York Times and Washington Post, but also conservative publications such as the Wall Street Journal (which called for resignation) and National Review. He was harshly blamed for the attack by his former Defense Secretary James Mattis and his former Chief of Staff John Kelly, who said he should be removed from office.
Fox News, long closely associated with support for Trump, had already joined other major news organizations in recognizing Biden’s electoral victory, even though denying that victory was the basis of Trump’s rally that incited the Capitol attack. So had Trump’s Attorney General, William Barr, and Republican Senate Majority leader Mitch McConnell. In the Senate, McConnell said,
“The voters, the courts, and the states have all spoken. If we overrule them all, it would damage our republic forever. This election was not unusually close. Just in recent history, 1976, 2000, and 2004 were all closer. This Electoral College margin is almost identical to 2016. If this election were overturned by mere allegations from the losing side, our democracy would enter a death spiral. We’d never see the whole nation accept an election again. Every four years would bring a scramble for power at any cost.”
That grim view was before Trump’s rhetoric incited a mob to storm the Capitol and threaten the lives of Congress members and Trump’s own Vice President. Yet despite the shock and horror expressed by many former Trump allies, people who identify with the Republican party continue to be resistant to blaming Trump for manufacturing a controversy that threatens to tear the country apart.