Often people have asked, “How could people watch six million* die and do nothing to stop it?” I have probably said it myself.
If a large fraction of the Gaza Strip population dies of starvation this year, we will not have the need nor the right to ask that anymore.
*Jews were actually only one group of the civilian victims of the Nazis. Others included nearly 6 million non-Jewish Soviet citizens, nearly 2 million non-Jewish Poles, and perhaps 800,000 others including Roma and the disabled. It does not hurt to remember that while Nazi atrocities started with their crimes against the Jews, they did not end with them.
Speaking as an American
It is difficult for any people to show restraint after suffering a horrific attack like October 7th. That is true for Israelis now and it will be true for Gazans in the coming years when they seek revenge for the widespread death and destruction visited on them by Israel. Sometimes it may be too much to ask people for empathy for their enemies. That is why outside pressure is also needed when any nation is reeling from anger and loss. No one is in a better position to apply that pressure than Israel’s chief ally, the United States.
In war there are sometimes difficult decisions to be made about protecting civilians versus attacking the enemy. This one is not difficult. Israel is controlling borders and conducting military operations inside Gaza. They are responsible for making sure enough food and water gets to the population.
I have argued against those who accused Israel of genocide, which some were doing even before October 7th. I do not know that the current shortages of food, water, and sanitation will lead to genocidal levels of death. However, unlike previous accusations, concerns about a much higher level of widespread civilian death are now plausible given current circumstances. Israel has a legal responsibility to make sure this does not happen, and we have a moral responsibility to speak up before it is too late.
Code Red on IPC Dashboard
How bad are things in Gaza? Here I will discuss the current state of hunger and other health threats.
NY Times, Washington Post, The Guardian, and many news sources have been reporting about growing signs of famine. The most authorative source I could find is the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), started in 2004 for Somalia and partnering with US AID, UKaid, Oxfam, the EU, and several UN agencies.
According to the IPC, “the latest evidence confirms that Famine is imminent” and “projected to occur anytime between mid-March and May 2024”. Previously, IPC developed the Acute Food Insecurity Scale to classify households:
The IPC Scale was applied to individual subdivisions (governates) of the Gaza Strip (see figure, left panel for subdivisions). North Gaza and Gaza were classified as Phase 5 (Famine), “with 70% (around 210,000 people) of the population in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe).” For these subdivisions, recent steep increases in malnutrition make it “highly likely that the famine threshold for acute malnutrition has also been exceeded.” Other governates were judged to be in Phase 4 (Emergency). If a ground offensive goes into Rafah, “the most likely scenario” is that over one million people in the Gaza Strip are “expected to face catastrophic conditions” between now and July. Figure below (right panel) shows prevalance of different phases throughout the Gaza Strip.
The same report notes that as much as 60% of agricultural land has been damaged in the fighting, [p. 6], and that average food imports dropped from 150 trucks/day before October 7 to 65 trucks/day after [p. 8]. The number of calories of food arriving by truck is estimated to be half the requirements for Rafah and much less in northern Gaza, and an “almost sufficient amount” in central governates. Airdrops of food “account for a negligible share of” food security assistance [p. 11] and can pose a danger to people on the ground [p. 10].
Before the war, Gaza already depended on desalination and cross-border pipes for 20% of its water, with the other 80% coming from groundwater sources which don’t meet international standards due to pollution and salt water intrusions from the sea [p. 19]. Now bombing, shortages, and fighting have brought down the amount of water for “drinking, bathing, and cleaning” to perhaps 2 liters/person/day or less [p. 20]. My local water utility says the average water usage in my area is 190 liters/person/day.
Infectious disease has become nearly universal among children, with 70% experiencing diarrhoea in previous 2 weeks [p. 24]. Mortality data from North Gaza is lacking but the report talks about possible rates of .6% of the population per month (2/10,000/day) or higher dying from malnutrition in the near future [p. 27].
The report concludes: “The actions needed to prevent Famine require an immediate political decision for a ceasefire together with a significant and immediate increase in humanitarian and commercial access to the entire population of Gaza.” [emphasis mine].
Whose Fault?
Israeli officials have claimed that “there is no food shortage in Gaza.” The fact that this is contradicted by virtually every observer other than pro-Israel partisans makes it hard to believe. If food is not scarce, why is the US, a staunch ally who has nothing to gain by embarrassing Israel, dropping food from airplanes and building a dock for food shipments? Actually Israeli denials make me more suspicious that it is intentionally using food as a weapon.
In October, Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant promised a “complete siege” with “No electricity, no food, no water”, though since that statement Israel has in fact been allowing all three to enter Gaza. Israeli protesters have tried to block aid trucks from entering, arguing that the food should be withheld until hostages are released. Various public figures have advocated cutting off shipments to Gaza, but this is reacting against official Israeli policy, which is to not starve civilians.
In the past, starvation was an accepted war tactic, with armies routinely besieging cities in order to starve them into submission. Such tactics started to fall out of favor in the 1800s. One source claimed that international law did not ban starvation through blockade until 1977, but another says it was included in the 1949 Geneva Conventions. As recently as 2022, in the context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Congress condemned the use of hunger as a weapon of war. Generally speaking, intentional harm to civilians is illegal under international law. Militaries have some legal cover for harming civilians as an unavoidable part of attacks on enemy armies. However, it seems to me that claiming that Hamas is hording food and that only civilians are harmed by food shortages would make Israel more culpable if they are intentionally limiting food to civilians in order to pressure Hamas.
Some have blamed the food shortage on internal problems in Gaza, such as hording and resulting high food prices, theft of food, and other trouble with distribution. These may be factors, but they are exactly what you would expect given the cut in food imports and Israel’s own military operations that degrade Gaza infrastructure and attack Hamas’ ability to keep law and order. The most authoritative sources all seem to agree that food shipments across the border are down. That’s a problem under Israel’s control whether or not there are additional problems inside Gaza.
If Israeli leadership believes that the shortages are not from lack of supply, they can double the amount of food crossing the border and we can see if hunger decreases or not.
Israel’s actions look consistent with doing just enough to be able to claim that food and water is getting through, but not enough to prevent widespread disease outbreaks, which is the usual way that famines kill.
Widening the scope of responsibility, some say that the growing famine is the fault of Hamas, which brutally attacked Israel on October 7 and continues to hold hostages. Yes, but both sides have done things to prolong this conflict across generations. If we say that it is moral for Israel to starve Palestinian kids to get at Hamas, does that mean it is okay for Hamas to kill Israeli kids to get at the Israeli government?
28 March Update
In a long 22 March article about conflict between Biden and Netanyahu, Politico reported that US pressure was making Israel increase food shipments in March and contemplate moving civilians out of harm’s way before attacking Rafah. In order to receive sea-borne food from World Central Kitchen, Israel allowed Palestinians to build a jetty out of slabs of rubble taken from buildings bombed by Israel. However, a 26 March Reuters report continues to describe desperate conditions within Gaza.