Good News: Fewer Murders
Preliminary statistics show that the United States homicide rate is back down to where it was before the 30% jump in 2020.
Though the US president has little influence over the crime rate, statistics show that murders plummeted during the Clinton administration, hardly changed under George W. Bush, declined slightly and then increased slightly under Obama, and shot up in the last year of the Trump administration. The homicide rate stayed near 2020 levels for the first two years of the Biden administration before the big drop in 2023.
Taking a longer view, the murder rate basically doubled in the 1960s and early 70s, stayed high till the 1990s, then went down to 1960s values. Annual homicides were about 50 per million in 1960. By 1993 they were 95/million, averaged 52/million from 2001-2019, and during 2020-2022 averaged 65/million. In 2023 they were back to 53/million.
Rates of other crimes do not necessarily go up and down in tandem with homicide. I usually focus on homicide because it is the most serious crime and is reported more consistently then other crimes such as theft, assault, and rape.
Experts do not have a consensus on the cause of any of the major changes in murder and other crime rates. The big drop in the 1990s has been attributed to stricter policing, more incarceration, and some surprising indirect causes such as more abortion (fewer future criminals born into difficult circumstances) and the ban on leaded gas (less cognitive impairment from lead). The 2020 rise has been blamed on Covid, changes in policing in the wake of Black Lives Matter protests, and other causes. It’s likely that several factors contributed to each change.
Data for 1992-2022 comes from the FBI Crime Data Explorer. Most sources quote murder rates per 100,000, which I think is more awkward than per million. Also, per million is easier to scale up when considering populations of countries, states, or the 50 largest counties in the US, which are often quoted in millions.